Projection systems tend to agree, with the ShotQualityBets model projecting Liberty as a three-point favorite and BarTorvik pegging the Flames as a four-point favorite. APįirst, Liberty is likely a tad overvalued in the market, while Charleston is a tad undervalued, compared to the true talent level. College of Charleston head coach Pat Kelsey talks to his players during a game in January 2023. The Flames should miss more tough jumpers from now on. Meanwhile, ShotQuality projects that Liberty should be shooting 36% from deep instead of 40% and Flames’ opponents should be hitting 34% from 3 instead of 28%, based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed.Īnd, per Synergy, Liberty ranks in the 89th percentile of teams in guarded catch-and-shoot PPP (1.2). They’ll make more open jumpers going forward. The Cougs rank in the 11th percentile of D-I teams in unguarded catch-and-shoot PPP (.85). ShotQuality projects the Cougars should be shooting 34% from 3 instead of 27% based on the “quality” of attempts. And both are due for some shooting regression to the mean. They’re 227th in eFG% allowed (51.3%) and 263rd in PPP allowed (.91).īut these are two 3-point-reliant teams, each ranking top-20 in 3-point rate. It’ll be especially tough for Charleston to stop Liberty if the Cougs keep playing horrendous defense. They’re scoring 85 points per game despite playing at a sub-300 tempo. The Flames have been Flamethrowers, leading the nation in eFG% (62.1%) and ShotQuality half-court PPP (1.13). I think Charleston can catch an exhausted Liberty team off balance.

Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t play Thursday and will be on five days rest after beating Kent State last Sunday. The Flames lost 83-58 in a physical, demanding game against top-dog FAU on Thursday night and now play Charleston on Friday night. It should be a fun event, especially for mid-major basketball lovers like myself.īut this puts Liberty in a brutal situational spot. So, we’ve got Liberty, FAU, and Charleston playing a little round-robin in Charleston this weekend for the Field of 68 Tip-off.

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